Conclave's BAFTA win puts it back in Oscar contention – but here's why it's still an outside bet

The odds for the all important Best Picture trophy at the upcoming Oscars have been especially prone to fluctuation, and indeed several of the big Hollywood trade magazines have switched their chosen frontrunner almost too many times to count.

Recently, it appeared as if Sean Baker’s Anora might have emerged as the consensus pick following a glut of key precursor wins, but it looks like yet another spanner could have been thrown in the works following Conclave’s Best Film win at last night’s BAFTA Film Awards.

Or has it? In truth, although Conclave’s win certainly pushes it back into the conversation as far as the Best Picture race is concerned, this seems more likely to be one of the increasingly common years where BAFTA and the Academy opt for different winners.

Indeed, although the BAFTAs can often feel like something of a dress rehearsal for the Oscars when it comes to the acting categories, the winners of the top prize at the two ceremonies have diverged on eight of the previous 10 years – so looking at the BAFTA winner is not an especially reliable method of predicting Best Picture.

It’s also worth noting that Conclave always looked like being a more popular pick with BAFTA voters, with the film having led the way on 12 nominations going into the ceremony, compared to just eight at the Oscars.

Meanwhile, BAFTA has previous for giving the top prize to a film made by director Edward Berger, with his adaptation of All Quiet on the Western Front having won two years ago only for Everything Everywhere All at Once to triumph at the Oscars.

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We’d therefore hazard an (educated) guess that the aforementioned Anora is still the film to beat when it comes to Oscars night, with its wins at the WGA, PGA and DGA awards having made it the obvious pick.

We’d also remain relatively bullish about the chances of Brady Corbet’s mesmerising epic The Brutalist – which won in the Best Motion Picture, Drama category at the Golden Globes – although admittedly it seems to be something of an outside bet now.

One area where we perhaps could look at the BAFTA results as an indication for the Oscars is in the Best Actress category – which remains the only major acting race that isn’t all but sewn up (Adrien Brody, Zoe Saldaña and Kieran Culkin are all pretty much locks at this point).

Given recent results, Mikey Madison’s win last night for her superb central turn in Anora can go down as something of a surprise, and suggests that the race between her and The Substance star Demi Moore – who won at the Golden Globes – is one that will go right down to the wire.

But Conclave still seems unlikely to claim the golden statuette next month, a point underlined by the fact that Berger didn't even make the nomination list for Best Director.

As for whether it was deserving of the top prize last night, on the whole it strikes me a a fairly safe – dare I say uninspiring – pick. The film certainly has its pleasures, not least the excellent leading turn from Ralph Fiennes, but I'm not sure there's anything here to really set it apart as truly exceptional, especially when compared to some of the more artistically daring films in the pack.

It's an accomplished, solid piece of old-school entertainment – just hardly one that seems deserving of best-of-the-year status. I'll be hoping for a different winner at the Oscars.

The EE BAFTA Film Awards took place on Sunday 16th February 2025 and the Oscars will take place on Sunday 2nd March 2024.

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