Oscar predictions 2025: Who will win and should win Best Actor?

In László Tóth, Brody is responsible for bringing to life one of the most compelling big-screen characters of the last decade, a role that offered him the opportunity to express the full gamut of human emotions across the film’s three-and-a-half hour runtime.

Whether the architect is experiencing the brief euphoria of family reunion, suffering the throes of heroin addiction or portraying the tortured psyche of a man battling deep-rooted trauma and a rigged system, Brody is always convincing and magnetic in the role.

Despite a somewhat over-egged kerfuffle around the use of an AI post-production tool to correct his Hungarian accent in a tiny handful of scenes, he has consistently appeared as the clear frontrunner for pretty much the entire awards season, having won the top prize at virtually every precursor event, including the recent BAFTAs.

Interestingly, his closest competition appears to come from a man who would unseat him as the youngest ever winner: Timothée Chalamet.

The 29-year-old actor’s performance as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown is certainly impressive – at his best he completely transforms himself into the folk singer-songwriter – and this kind of pitch-perfect impersonation of a well-known real-life figure is just the type the Academy has been known to honour in the past, while his win at the SAG Awards puts him firmly back in the race.

As for the other contenders, it’s an interesting mix of performances. Sebastian Stan’s turn as Donald Trump is another that falls into the "skillful impersonation of a public figure" camp, but it’s a far more subtle interpretation than many of the actors who have previously tried their hand at the US president.

Still, most people who have seen his performance in the brilliant A Different Man would agree that Stan has actually been nominated for the wrong film. But that's splitting hairs.

Meanwhile, the always charismatic Colman Domingo – nominated for Best Actor for the second consecutive year – and the reliably captivating Ralph Fiennes both turn in fine performances in Sing Sing and Conclave respectively, but neither appear to have built enough support to pose a serious threat to Brody.

Then, on the fringes of the picture, are snubs: the most startling omission from the list is undoubtedly Daniel Craig. The former James Bond star’s lead turn in Luca Guadagnino’s Queer is the finest dramatic work of his career, and exactly the kind of against-type role you’d have expected the Academy to lap up.

Still, even if he had been nominated it would have been hard to argue a case for him over Brody – and The Brutalist star looks like being a very deserving winner indeed.

The Academy Awards will take place on Sunday 2nd March.

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