Oscar predictions 2025: Who will win and should win Best Director?
With just a few days until the ceremony, there are two clear frontrunners for the award.
As with this year’s Best Picture Oscar, it looks to be a case of sex work versus architecture for 2025’s Best Director award.
Sean Baker’s madcap screwball comedy drama Anora, about a stripper who marries the son of a Russian oligarch, has won enough film-festival and critics’-choice awards to fill any mantlepiece – and yet the writer/director has only been a bookie’s frontrunner fleetingly. That’s because Brady Corbet and The Brutalist have been at least as big a presence on the Hollywood awards’ circuit, thanks to the colossal epic starring Adrien Brody as a mid-century Hungarian architect.
At first glance, the rest of the field appears strong, thanks to all the other nominees being behind the camera for Best Picture contenders. However, there is little serious threat to the Baker and Corbet, who appear to be in a tight two-horse race, according to Hollywood pundits who read the runes like ex-footballers watch replays on Match of the Day.
After Walk the Line and Le Mans ’66, James Mangold is seen as an exceedingly secure pair of hands for a true-life drama, but his Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown is perhaps too unspectacular and familiar to gain traction for a direction prize.
Jacques Audiard of Emilia Pérez, meanwhile, is a seasoned figure in European festivals, where he has often been feted, yet his Netflix cartel-crime-drama-cum-musical lost momentum after star Karla Sofía Gascón was discovered to have posted a number of problematic tweets – and although Audiard has distanced himself from his leading lady, he now seems an outside bet.
That leaves The Substance director Coralie Fargeat, who is just the ninth female directing nominee in history – and looks like a long shot to win due to her body-horror film being arguably the most confrontational on the ballot.
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Naturally, there are controversial snubs too, with Dune's Denis Villeneuve and Conclave's Edward Berger among the most conspicuous absentees, but it's doubtful either would be in serious contention had they been nominated.
Fundamentally, The Brutalist’s Corbet and Anora’s Baker have triumphed at the so-called “precursor” awards. The former has a Venice Film Festival directing gong, plus a Golden Globe and BAFTA to his name, while the latter has a Cannes Film Festival Palme d’Or and hit a winning streak recently at awards for the directors, writers and producers guilds. In particular, the directors guild is significant, as nine of the last ten winners there have gone on to win the Oscar for directing.
Quite how much that will tip the scales in favour of Baker will depend on individual voter taste. Will Anora prove too bawdy and hectic or The Brutalist simply too long and bleak?
Ultimately, though, the best director Oscar tends to go to two types of film-maker: the one whose film also wins Best Picture (like Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer, Bong Joon-Ho for Parasite, Chloé Zhao for Nomadland), or the one whose film is critically acclaimed and admired for its craft – but not popular enough to win Best Picture (think Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog or Alfonso Cuarón for Roma).
With less than two weeks to go, Corbet and Baker can easily fit those bills. But whatever happens, it’s a more compelling contest than when Christopher Nolan essentially had his name engraved on the statuette since before Christmas last year.
The Academy Awards will take place on Sunday 2nd March.
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