BBC's Sarah Smith: 'Trump will not concede' and other predictions for 2024

"Who would have thought Donald Trump would be convicted of 34 felonies, and increase his popularity as a result? Then came the Biden-Trump debate – nothing was more jaw-dropping than that, watching a 50-year political career falling apart in front of me."

As she continues to list the events that have occurred since the end of May, it’s a reminder of how extraordinary it has all been.

"Next there was the first Trump assassination attempt – I was lying on the sofa on a day off watching Netflix when I got a WhatsApp saying 'Trump’s been shot'. Right after that we had the febrile Republican convention, where delegates believed literal divine intervention had saved their messiah for them.

"Then Joe Biden dropped his re-election bid and Kamala Harris took over just ahead of the Democratic convention, before the second Trump assassination attempt. That day I was at a friend’s for a very jolly Sunday lunch, about to pour my second glass of wine, when someone glanced at their phone and said: 'Someone’s tried to shoot Trump again.' Just the most astonishing year."

On a rare day off from campaign coverage – she’s usually following one of the two candidates, or seeking voters’ views in the seven key swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – Smith is at home in Washington DC.

She is speaking via Teams from her large, bright sitting room, with what looks like a period fireplace and comfortable antique furniture behind her. Sunlight is streaming through the windows, the pleasant autumn warmth a welcome contrast to the humid Washington summer.

As we talk she has just recorded an episode of Americast, the BBC’s podcast on US news and politics, and throughout our conversation, her manner is much like talking with a friend – funny and self-deprecating but also focused and engaged.

"The time difference definitely makes the job more challenging," she says. "I wake up at 6:30am, five hours behind London, always to a ton of waiting emails. Doing a report for the early evening Six O'Clock News can be a right old scramble – if I’m in Arizona, that’s 10am my time.

"We have to be alert to AI and fake news. Disinformation is a huge part of this campaign. I’ve spoken to voters who say it’s true that Haitian immigrants are eating cats and dogs because they have seen it on TikTok," she says, referencing Trump’s baseless claim about residents of Springfield, Ohio, denied by local officials.

It sounds exhausting and exhilarating in equal measure, and there’s one home comfort that’s vital to keeping Smith going on the road. "I always take my portable kettle, some Tetley teabags and a mug. Then I buy some real milk, not that half-and-half cream stuff you get here, so that I can have practically intravenous continuous cups of tea.

"On days off I like to get outside into the amazing countryside around Washington. I’m booked in every Saturday for pilates, which is cancelled half the time when a story breaks. There’s also a marvellous farmers’ market near me on a Sunday, although then I’ll get on a plane that afternoon and realise everything I bought is going to rot while I’m away."

Smith met her husband of 17 years, Simon Conway, through his sister and they were married within a year. He is a director with the Halo Trust charity, which works to clear landmines in countries recovering from conflict. "He is currently based in the South Pacific," she says. "Neither of us complains about the other being away. We’re used to it."

As one of three daughters of the late Labour leader John Smith, who died in 1994 aged 55, she is also used to the public gaze. Her sister Catherine, a lawyer, has just become Baroness Smith of Cluny through her appointment in August as Advocate General for Scotland.

Sarah proudly posted an image on X of Catherine’s introduction to the House of Lords alongside their 84-year-old mother Elizabeth, who has been Baroness Smith of Gilmorehill since 1995.

Smith herself took up her own current role at the start of 2022, following eight years as the BBC’s Scotland editor. Has living in the US changed her? "It’s made me fatter," she says, ruefully. "It’s known as The 10lb Posting and I’ve put on at least that."

Meanwhile, Tuesday 5th November – polling day – looms. "I’ll be up from 6am until 6pm the next day, so 36 hours straight," she says.

"I want to be based wherever the winning candidate is, but it’s a gamble who that will be. Wherever you see me, is where I thought the victory was going to be and you will be able to see how wrong I was when the results start coming in.

"It’s going to be so tight that I suspect we will not get a definitive result on the night. If Harris wins, Trump will not accept it. There will be an extraordinary number of legal challenges. Briefs are already prepared, ready to file. Trump’s team will be much better prepared this time than four years ago, and their attempts will last longer.

"We could still be in a legal mire by the inauguration on 20th January – in which case I’ve no idea what happens, because it’s been mandated in the US Constitution since 1933 that the president is sworn in on that date."

She shakes her head again, hands spread. So many extraordinary chapters already in this election, with clearly many more yet to come.

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