First Ashes Test 2023 preview: Michael Atherton on Edgbaston clash, key players and favourites to win

Atherton ran the rule over the key players you need to watch this weekend, breakout stars to keep an eye on and where this match will be won or lost, as well as a look at conditions facing the players in Birmingham.

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First Ashes Test predictions and preview

Key players to watch?

MA: Steve Smith for Australia. He's the number one ranked batter in the world at the moment with a test average of 60 (runs per innings). He's one of the greatest players who's played the game, he's got a fantastic record against England – and in England. Smith is fresh off a hundred in the World Test Championship at the Oval, so he's a key player.

For England, Ben Stokes, as captain, leader, all-rounder, the man who's been the main reason for this kind of resurgence in England's Test team, or revitalised Test team. There's a bit of a question mark around the state of his left knee which is usually seen in heavy strapping – how much can he bowl? But he's a man of tremendous spirit and will to win, an indomitable will to win. He's very much the leader and main man for this team.

He hasn't bowled for quite some time. He last really bowled for England at the end of the New Zealand tour, which is back in February. He bowled one over in the Indian Premier League and hasn't bowled [in a match] since. He has done some bowling in the run-up to this game and throughout history, bowlers bowl through pain, it's not a new thing.

Medium-fast bowling is hard work and lots of players can bowl through pain, and he's got quite a high pain threshold, but equally to see him limping around as he was in New Zealand, because of his high pain threshold, you know that it's not an insignificant thing. Yes, people should be slightly concerned but he is usually somebody who manages to get himself right for the big occasions.

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Breakout stars to watch?

MA: Harry Brook for England. It's his first Ashes. He's only been in England's Test team for six months but he's made a staggering start to his Test career in the winter, scored three Test hundreds in Pakistan and looked a fabulous young talent – one of the hottest properties in the game. That was seen when he got sold in the Indian Premier League for £1.35 million. It's his first Ashes and there's always an element of unknown there, but he is a tremendous talent.

You never quite know how people will react to playing in an international or indeed in an Ashes with all the hype and scrutiny, but he seems a fairly down-to-earth, level-headed lad. He's a young Yorkshire player and not got many airs and graces about him, he just seems to kind of enjoy getting his head down and playing cricket. The suspicion is he'll be fine, but you never quite know. Certainly what we've seen so far in terms of his six months in international cricket, he has taken to it very easily. Fingers crossed he'll be fine.

For Australia, I think Cameron Green, their Stokes equivalent as an all-rounder, but he's very young. He played the last Ashes in the winter. He's a real talent, you know, six foot six, gives it a bash, bowls quite quickly, he's a brilliant fielder in the gully. He is a player the Australians have got high hopes for over the next few years.

Conditions at Edgbaston?

MA: Looking out at it now [on Wednesday morning], it's a beautiful day – cloudless skies in Birmingham. Edgbaston is, on the numbers, England's best ground. In terms of Ashes cricket, probably as many wins here or a better win ratio as anywhere else other than the Oval. It's renowned as a ground that has a particularly febrile atmosphere, it is very different to Lord's. It's going to be really bouncing on Friday and over the weekend.

There's a particular stand away to the right from where I'm looking, which is called the Eric Hollies Stand, which is the party stand. It's got a great atmosphere and England like playing here for that reason, they feel that they get almost a 12th man on their side from the way the crowd behave. It's a good place for anyone to start, the forecast is fine – I'm looking forward to it.

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How will the match be won or lost?

MA: I think the batting is crucial. If England can find a way of getting on top of Smith and [Marnus] Labuschagne – Australia actually have the number one, two and three ranked batters in the world at the moment, Smith, Labuschagne and Travis Head – if England can find a way of keeping on top of them, which is not easy to do, that'll go a long way to pushing for victory.

Equally England's own batting. In the last Ashes they really struggled to get on top of a very good five-man attack. That's the key thing really: which side bats better in this first Test match.

The great question really ahead of this series, England play such an attractive style of cricket, such an attacking style of cricket, that everybody's saying, 'Can they do it against what is probably the most varied and best bowling attack?' That the fascination.

Favourites to win?

MA: Very hard to call, but I think maybe marginally England, just because Australia haven't beaten England here for a long, long time, it's 20 years or more since Australia [won the Ashes] in England. Home conditions count for a lot. It's a very good Australian side, but I'd say maybe England are marginal favourites.

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