BBC Test Match Special's Andy Zaltzman on Ashes 2023, England stats quirks and how to stop Australia

He picked out a crucial player in England's arsenal, delved into how England have won matches under the stewardship of coach Brendan McCullum and captain Ben Stokes, and revealed they direction his completely unscientific win predictor is leaning going into the series.

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The teams: A clash of styles

AZ: England are playing this unprecedented style of cricket. All-out attack with the bat, going at 4.8 an over since [Brendan] McCullum and [Ben] Stokes took over last year, over 13 tests, which is by far the fastest a team has scored over a sequence of matches that long. The previous best 13-game sequence, in terms of runs per over, was 4.1 and that was a great Australian side 20 years ago. It shows quite how England have committed to this. To have a whole batting line-up geared to attack is something that's essentially not been done in Test cricket before.

What we have with Australia is an extremely high class bowling attack but the one glitch this England batting side had in the series' played since McCullum took over was against South Africa last summer. South Africa bowled them out cheaply twice at Lord's, they had them in trouble at Old Trafford and bowled them out cheap at The Oval again. But that batting was very weak, England's bowling was excellent and they won that series anyway. But that's the closest thing they have come to an attack of the quality that Australia is bringing, which might be a slight worry. It is an absolutely fascinating prospect and also on a personal level, I've been watching cricket since I was six years old on the telly but I've never been to Day One of an Ashes series. I am ridiculously excited about it on a personal level!

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The problem: How to stop Australia

AZ: Steve Smith in 2019 scored almost 800 runs, averaged over 100. He had seven innings in the series and reached 80 in the first six of them. If he does something like that again, then England are clearly in trouble, but in a way, if Australia can protect Smith a bit by delaying the taking of the first two wickets, that's going to have a big impact on his productivity.

If England can get on top of Warner as they did four years ago, and in the latter part of the series in Australia 18 months ago, that might make things tougher for Labuschagne and Smith coming in. Labuschagne is an old style No.3 player, very steady, very consistent, I think if England can undermine him and reduce his extraordinary output that he's had since coming into the Test side, again, that gives them a better chance.

Essentially as we've seen with this Stokes-McCullum side, it's the bowlers that win games. The extraordinary thing with this England side is that the batting buys time for them to take wickets but they've taken basically every possible wicket they could take since Stokes and McCullum took over. They have bowled out their opposition in every innings. It will be a challenge, if they're going to have quite flat pitches, it's going to be a huge challenge for England but I think they're definitely capable of it.

The key weapon: Ollie Robinson

AZ: I think possibly if I could pick one England player it would be Ollie Robinson, who is probably more likely to play all five Tests than Anderson and Broad just because he's not either over 40 or nearly 40 although those two are prodigious athletes who I'm sure could play five Tests if they wanted to. Robinson, that much younger, he's had a few injury problems himself but his record is absolutely superb for England, averaging 21 in 16 Tests so far, 66 wickets, one of the best starts an England player has ever had to a Test career.

He's taken 40 wickets in seven Tests in England, he was okay in the last Ashes but didn't have a major impact on it, I think in the physical condition he's in now, he looks fitter and more robust. He's got a very good record against good players and I think if he has a big series, then England are in business. He's a highly-skilled bowler, bowls from a really awkward height, not quick but quick enough that his movement causes problems, he can move it both ways and has the confidence of someone who has had a lot of success in a short period of time.

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The opener: Crawley by numbers

AZ: It's quite hard to make the case from a numbers point of view because his numbers are not great and over quite a long period of time. He's coming up to his 35th test averaging 27-28, which is not great. His failure rate, the number of innings in which he's out for less than 20, is historically high, one of the highest in Test history for a top order player. It's quite hard to make that case.

He has had innings where he's scored rapidly at the start, and that's sort of what England are looking for. He's got a number of entries in the fastest 50s by England openers, he sort of almost dominates that list now after the last year, but whether he can do it in an Ashes against really high class seam bowling, there's nothing in his stats so far to suggest that he can do that.

But the thing with cricket stats is they tell you what has happened, what is likely to happen, what may happen but not what will happen so there's always a chance that players break through. It's one of the numerous fascinating subplots but in terms of Crawley opening, I think if he doesn't succeed in the first two Tests, they will look to do something different. They've been extremely patient with him as a long-term project player but at some point he will have to start producing what they want from him more consistently than he has.

The quirk: England's unusual record

AZ: We've looked at a lot of the numbers of the Stokes-McCullum team over the last 13 Tests and it is extraordinary – I mentioned their scoring rate 4.8 per over in that time. They've lost a wicket when batting every 50 balls and they've taken a wicket every 51 balls, so they've been losing wickets quicker than they've been taking wickets but they've won 11 and lost two of those 13 games. Usually you'd expect a winning team to be batting longer than it bowls. Australia, in the same period, won seven, lost three, they've been losing a wicket every 64 balls taking a wicket every 50 balls, it's more what you would expect from a team that is dominating.

That shows the way England are playing, this very fast, high-risk batting style, but also that balls per wicket has come down quite a lot with broadly the same attack that they had before and that's been one of the fascinations of this team is seeing them in the field.

The Andy Zaltzman Ashes Win Predictor: It says...

AZ: I think it's leaning very slightly to Australia because of the quality of their team. This is a generation of players that has never won an Ashes series in England. They retained them last time as the series was drawn 2-2 after they lost the final Test at The Oval. They will really want to get a series win, they're very, very good but not flawless. I'm hoping it will be an absolutely classic series and we'll get a rare decisive fifth Test, which doesn't happen very often in Ashes series'.

On a scale of 100, I think 52-48 to Australia, anyone reading in the United Kingdom should know a thing about a 52-48 split – never ends well – so we'll see. But I do think England have a good chance. It's one of those series, ask anyone to predict it, it's quite possible that Australia will win 5-0, it's possible England will win 5-0, it might be 2-2, 3-2, it could be anything, and that is what makes it so fascinating but I slightly lean to a narrow Australia win but I hope I'm wrong.

The way this England team has been playing has been quite genuinely extraordinary. Extraordinary is the most overused word in sports coverage but I think it is genuinely extraordinary and fascinating and captivating and exciting. It'll be very interesting to see how it pans out against this Australian side.

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